Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4986…a5d5 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% $0
other 26% −$5
politics 20% $0
tech 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
sports 5% $0
culture 4% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.7% -7.1% 29% 14% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +2.4% -7.4% 25% 12% -9.5%
≤90d 8 +2.4% -7.4% 25% 12% -9.5%
all 41 -1.3% -10.7% 29% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 5% -9.9%
10% -19.2% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage316d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $46 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $82 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Jan 30 $2 $0 -7%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jan 30 $49 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 09 $5 $0 -2%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 22 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $1 $0 -11%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 14 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $123K on August 12 at 5PM ET Aug 12 $53 $0 +1%
Will JD Vance say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" during his remarks to US troop Aug 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $44 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $87 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $53 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 08 $53 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? Aug 07 $37 $0 +1%
Will Brian Campbell be the first round leader at the 2025 FedEx St. Ju Aug 07 $24 −$5 -22%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Aug 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 06 $58 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 06 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $46 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $46 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $46 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $46 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $46 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $46 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $45 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $45 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $39 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 83¢ $40 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $31 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $10 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $42 7d
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $5 281d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 95¢ $5 281d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 299d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 299d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 299d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 299d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 306d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 307d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.72 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records