Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
49 0x498b…ca86 sports 677 markets active 0h ago coverage 553d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$720 (-5%) realized −$718 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%346W / 322L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$102
14 days+$34
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$692
other 20% −$63
world 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -32.8% -39.2% 44% 44% -21.7%
≤30d 157 +5.2% -4.8% 65% 64% -4.2%
≤90d 179 +4.4% -5.6% 63% 62% -10.6%
all 668 -3.8% -13.0% 52% 51% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 51% -14.3%
10% -21.3% 49% -22.5%
15% -28.9% 42% -30.0%
20% -35.9% 28% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

553d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$718
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses346 / 322
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions5
Markets (closed)668 / 677
History coverage553d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 668 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs PlayTime 78¢ 80¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Yakult Brothers 70¢ 66¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$11 +44%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $25 +$6 +24%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$6 +29%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $15 +$7 +46%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $15 +$6 +42%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$6 +42%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$2 +14%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$13 +84%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$8 +50%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$10 +65%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $15 +$4 +26%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $10 −$4 -40%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $35 +$16 +46%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $16 −$8 -48%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 14 $17 −$7 -39%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs WW Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Russia win on 2026-05-28? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$16 -62%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 +$12 +48%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $16 +$10 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $16 +$6 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $21 +$11 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$9 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 +$8 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $12 +$7 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $13 +$4 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 43¢ $11 22m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 99¢ $36 27m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 68¢ $25 42m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $19 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY PlayTime 78¢ $19 4h
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 70¢ $15 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Portugal w BUY 14¢ $5 27h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 80¢ $25 28h
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) BUY LGD Gaming 77¢ $20 28h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 70¢ $15 32h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 37h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY KOLESIE 68¢ $15 38h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5) BUY HOTU 67¢ $15 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 32¢ $5 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 97¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 52¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 87¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 60¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 79¢ $15 2d
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) BUY Vici Gaming 66¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series SELL TDK 50¢ $6 2d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 70¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY TDK 82¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $51 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will BUY 8¢ $5 3d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Legacy 34¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 68¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.42 · official $107.42 · 1603 history records