Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x498f…daaa crypto 37 markets active 6d ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$273 (-25%) realized −$273 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$199
14 days−$199
30 days−$342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$66
sports 45% −$276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -17.9% -25.7% 42% 42% -62.5%
≤30d 37 -8.9% -17.6% 46% 46% -37.6%
≤90d 37 -8.9% -17.6% 46% 46% -37.6%
all 37 -8.9% -17.6% 46% 46% -37.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 46% -37.6%
10% -25.5% 46% -43.6%
15% -32.7% 46% -49.0%
20% -39.3% 46% -54.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$34 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$273
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage14d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$7 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$7 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $19 +$17 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $130 −$125 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$9 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $149 −$129 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 01 $88 −$10 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 01 $38 +$39 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 01 $21 +$14 +69%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $94 −$93 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $79 +$114 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 01 $34 +$46 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 01 $38 +$36 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$18 +92%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $170 −$167 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records