Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:35:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
49 0x4990…2b83 other 8 markets active 23h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-19%) realized −$2 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$6
crypto 24% −$1
sports 9% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -33.7% -40.0% 40% 20% -28.0%
≤30d 5 -33.7% -40.0% 40% 20% -28.0%
≤90d 5 -33.7% -40.0% 40% 20% -28.0%
all 5 -33.7% -40.0% 40% 20% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.0% 20% -28.0%
10% -45.8% 20% -34.9%
15% -51.0% 20% -41.2%
20% -55.8% 20% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 22h
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.72 · official $7.72 (match) · 11 history records