Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4990…6044 crypto 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-3%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate92%61W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -3.6% -12.8% 80% 60% -12.7%
≤30d 66 -1.4% -10.8% 92% 20% -11.6%
≤90d 66 -1.4% -10.8% 92% 20% -11.6%
all 66 -1.4% -10.8% 92% 20% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 20% -11.6%
10% -19.3% 9% -20.1%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.8%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses61 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage21d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 01 $3 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 29 $3 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 29 $3 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 167 history records