Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:37:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x4992…a929
other · 92 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$584 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,215 · open +$34
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,193
Realized−$1,215
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses41 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)89 / 92
History coverage213d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%
Chart Positions 3 History 89 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$301
7 days−$35
14 days−$28
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $578 $576 −$3 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $463 $499 +$36 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $117 $117 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan China 28¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Over $100M committed to the Solomon public sale? No 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - November 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the government shutdown end November 13? No 6¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 23? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $82 +$325 +394%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,607 −$326 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $341 −$17 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,758 +$54 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $237 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $975 −$168 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,274 −$171 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $897 +$13 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $14 −$3 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $133 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $539 +$85 +16%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $310 −$3 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $824 +$111 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $735 +$32 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $207 +$10 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $386 +$21 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $349 +$12 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 03 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $29 −$1 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $321 −$20 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $355 +$8 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $63 +$6 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $51 +$11 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $4 +$27 +637%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 29 $27 +$4 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $41 −$10 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $109 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $101 −$96 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $21 −$13 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $140 +$8 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $61 −$44 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $19 −$10 -51%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? May 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 22 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 11 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 11 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 11 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 06 $1 $0 +12%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Mar 06 $1 $0 +43%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $6 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 98% −$1,188
politics 1% +$55
crypto 0% −$21
sports 0% −$27
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $564 52m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $117 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 13h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $12 13h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $83 13h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $31 13h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $55 13h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 13h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $61 13h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $3 14h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $5 14h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $10 14h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $63 14h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $19 14h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $22 14h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $105 14h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $71 14h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $61 14h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $19 14h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $63 14h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $33 14h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $277 16h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $21 16h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $61 16h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 17h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +21.7% +10.1% 59% 18% -9.8%
≤30d 38 +12.4% +1.7% 53% 24% -10.6%
≤90d 41 +9.9% -0.6% 54% 27% -10.6%
all 89 -9.4% -18.0% 46% 29% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 29% -14.6%
10% -25.9% 17% -22.8%
15% -33.0% 12% -30.3%
20% -39.6% 8% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,192.61 · official $1,192.61 (match) · 446 history records