Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
49 0x4994…b031 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$148 (-14%) realized −$148 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$299
politics 10% −$59
crypto 8% −$82
world 3% −$25
sports 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-58.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -36.9% -42.9% 0% 0% -42.9%
≤30d 6 -54.1% -58.5% 17% 17% -48.6%
≤90d 6 -54.1% -58.5% 17% 17% -48.6%
all 6 -54.1% -58.5% 17% 17% -48.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.5% 17% -48.6%
10% -62.5% 17% -53.5%
15% -66.1% 17% -58.0%
20% -69.4% 0% -62.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$93 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage19d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $811 −$299 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$48 -96%
Will Hunter Biden announce a Delaware Senate run by July 14? Jun 11 $31 −$25 -80%
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 11 $104 −$59 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 01 $35 −$34 -96%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $24 +$12 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $512 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $811 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $51 8d
Will Hunter Biden announce a Delaware Senate run by July 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 8d
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $44 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 18d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Detroit Tigers 94¢ $36 18d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 62¢ $24 18d
Will Hunter Biden announce a Delaware Senate run by July 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 18d
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $104 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records