Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
49 0x4995…faec other 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate36%24W / 42L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$1
world 30% +$4
politics 20% +$2
economics 9% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% +$1
culture 2% +$1
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.0% -5.9% 83% 17% -7.8%
≤30d 13 +1.9% -7.8% 46% 8% -8.9%
≤90d 13 +1.9% -7.8% 46% 8% -8.9%
all 66 +2.0% -7.7% 36% 8% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 8% -8.9%
10% -16.5% 2% -17.6%
15% -24.6% 2% -25.6%
20% -32.0% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.83 per $1 lost it wins $4.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses24 / 42
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage450d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 90¢ 90¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $21 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $44 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $39 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 +$1 +18%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $37 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $49 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $73 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $37 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 13 $2 $0 +13%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 13 $22 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 12 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 12 $23 $0 -1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11? Jul 10 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $5 $0 +10%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 09 $32 $0 -1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will George Tuță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $11 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 08 $6 $0 -2%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 03 $18 $0 +2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jun 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will the National Party of Suriname win the most seats in the 2025 Sur Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $26 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $21 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $4 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $17 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $44 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $44 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $16 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $23 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $27 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $12 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $16 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $20 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $18 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $37 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $12 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $26 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $1 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $36 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.45 · official $26.25 (match) · 268 history records