Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4997…53d4 other 272 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$88 (-0%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%12W / 260L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$29
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$46
sports 21% −$22
politics 7% −$8
culture 6% −$6
economics 5% −$6
world 5% −$5
crypto 4% −$2
tech 2% −$6
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 272 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses12 / 260
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)272 / 272
History coverage146d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 272 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $150 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $190 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $253 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $207 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $386 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $312 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $176 −$1 -1%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $633 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $329 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $239 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $173 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $535 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $839 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $268 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $518 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $312 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $449 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $358 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $255 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $458 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $624 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $313 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $409 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $49 2m
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 1h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $50 2h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $50 4h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $41 8h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $41 9h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 15h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 16h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 18h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 20h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 24h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 26h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 27h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 29h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 30h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 31h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 36h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 39h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 39h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 41h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 42h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 44h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 45h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 46h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1572 history records