Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:49:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
49 0x499a…d057 other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$45 (+0%) realized +$46 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate30%32W / 75L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$29
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$44
other 26% −$2
sports 23% $0
economics 13% −$1
finance 3% +$1
politics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.7% -14.6% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 30 -1.1% -10.5% 40% 3% -8.5%
≤90d 44 +11.1% +0.5% 32% 5% -9.2%
all 107 +4.5% -5.5% 30% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 5% -9.2%
10% -14.5% 1% -17.9%
15% -22.8% 1% -25.8%
20% -30.3% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses32 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage372d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $87 $85 −$1 (-2%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $256 −$3 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $190 +$2 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $194 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $210 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -29%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $158 +$27 +17%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $11 −$3 -29%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $143 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $186 +$4 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $164 +$5 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $182 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $364 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $92 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $163 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $116 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $322 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $180 +$1 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $290 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $145 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $129 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $328 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $20 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $157 +$9 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $333 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $163 +$6 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $331 +$6 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $175 −$9 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $80 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $32 +$1 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $528 +$2 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $951 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $704 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $924 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $207 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $952 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $952 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $952 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $14 −$2 -15%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $7 $0 -3%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jan 31 $15 $0 -2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 18 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $1 $0 -24%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Oct 08 $9 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $87 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $112 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $47 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $56 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $103 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $2 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $32 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $121 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $39 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $31 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $2 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $158 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $126 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $64 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $189 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $210 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $210 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $31 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $33 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $3 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $185 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $158 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.79 · official $88.20 · 373 history records