Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:21:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x499b…12ec crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 506d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%40W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$11
crypto 10% +$2
tech 2% $0
politics 2% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 51 +0.2% -9.3% 78% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

506d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses40 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage506d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 02 $64 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $35 +$1 +2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 01 $52 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $62 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $240 in November? Dec 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? Dec 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 04 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $25 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 03 $22 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 02 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 02 $54 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $5,269 −$11 -0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 03 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $95 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Mar 25 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Milroe be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025? Mar 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 20 Mar 08 $14 $0 -0%
Solana above $175 on February 28? Mar 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.25 by February 28 2025? Mar 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 14 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $76 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 29d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $64 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $41 62d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 91d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $19 91d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $42 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 98¢ $35 122d
Will Solana reach $200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $33 123d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 149d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 150d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $52 151d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $23 182d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $39 182d
Will Solana reach $240 in November? BUY No 100¢ $32 212d
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? BUY No 100¢ $39 212d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 100¢ $9 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $25 242d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $34 242d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 99¢ $22 274d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $43 274d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $11 302d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $21 302d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $36 302d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $13 333d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $54 335d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 364d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 395d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? BUY No 100¢ $10 395d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $5,258 413d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.25 · official $76.25 (match) · 109 history records