Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
49 0x499c…2f8e sports 1484 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$292 (-1%) realized −$293 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate78%1159W / 335L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day67.2pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$140
14 days−$178
30 days−$680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$197
other 9% −$126
crypto 7% −$28
world 0% +$10
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -17.9% -25.8% 61% 54% -16.8%
≤30d 720 -8.2% -16.9% 72% 57% -13.6%
≤90d 1494 -5.1% -14.2% 78% 51% -11.0%
all 1494 -5.1% -14.2% 78% 51% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 51% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 22% -19.5%
15% -29.9% 10% -27.3%
20% -36.7% 5% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$18 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$293
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1159 / 335
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1494 / 1484
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day67.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1494 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Under 79¢ 100¢ $40 $50 +$10 (+26%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Paraguay 89¢ 98¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+10%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Los Angeles Angels 73¢ 40¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-46%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Under 82¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 287 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic: 1H O/U 108.5 Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Amiens SC vs. Red Star FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Gwangju FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 205.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $16 +$3 +17%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $40 +$9 +21%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $30 +$12 +40%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $15 +$6 +42%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $34 +$6 +18%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $34 +$5 +14%
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen: O/U 168.5 Jun 19 $19 +$8 +44%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $25 +$4 +17%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $25 +$5 +21%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$7 +34%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $24 +$5 +21%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce: O/U 162.5 Jun 19 $35 +$24 +67%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 19 $52 +$13 +25%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 19 $5 −$1 -21%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 19 $10 −$1 -10%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 19 $12 +$3 +24%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos Jun 19 $25 +$4 +14%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 19 $43 −$1 -2%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 19 $22 +$31 +140%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 19 $16 +$2 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 +$4 +34%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 +$1 +11%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5 Jun 19 $21 +$12 +56%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Jun 19 $10 +$1 +12%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $21 +$4 +17%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $64 −$31 -49%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $20 +$4 +21%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $26 +$3 +13%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $40 +$6 +16%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $24 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 82¢ $5 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 74¢ $25 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 73¢ $15 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $40 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 89¢ $29 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 100¢ $19 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $30 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 85¢ $16 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 82¢ $40 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $34 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $15 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $34 6h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen: O/U 168.5 SELL Under 100¢ $28 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $25 8h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $20 9h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 82¢ $24 9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $25 9h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce: O/U 162.5 SELL Under 100¢ $59 9h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen: O/U 168.5 BUY Under 69¢ $19 12h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce: O/U 162.5 BUY Under 59¢ $35 12h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria SELL Rwanda 100¢ $65 12h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China SELL Namibia 60¢ $4 14h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 70¢ $8 15h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles SELL Samsung Lions 51¢ $9 15h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 79¢ $15 15h
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz SELL Kia Tigers 100¢ $15 15h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos SELL NC Dinos 100¢ $29 15h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China BUY Namibia 74¢ $5 16h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 83¢ $29 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.54 · official $90.54 (match) · 3500 history records