Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:30:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x499f…b72b
sports · 54 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$260 · open +$257
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,160
Realized−$260
Unrealized+$257
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 33
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage118d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$242
7 days−$295
14 days−$197
30 days−$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 21¢ 27¢ $903 $1,160 +$257 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Natus Vincere 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs FUT Esports 23¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO5) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs PARIVISION 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs TheMongolz 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs L1ga Team 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner FURIA 27¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner MASONIC 21¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 paiN 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 22¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Legacy 34¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner PARIVISION 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Group Stage Omega 21¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NRG - Map 2 Winner NRG 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 11¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs MAGICOS - Map 1 Winner MAGICOS 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner FaZe 22¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $378 +$564 +149%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,022 −$806 -79%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $54 −$53 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $2 +$4 +197%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $109 +$94 +86%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $2 +$1 +65%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $3 +$1 +29%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Cl Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $2 $0 +15%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Eu Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $2 +$1 +36%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner Mar 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Mar 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Players vs Game Hunters - Map 1 Winner Mar 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Back to Back - Map 1 Winner Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - CCT South Amer Mar 16 $18 +$45 +257%
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs MIBR Academy - Map 1 Winner Mar 16 $18 +$45 +258%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Mar 15 $9 +$23 +270%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Gr Mar 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pl Mar 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs MAGICOS - Map 1 Winner Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO5) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Feb 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Feb 21 $14 +$18 +127%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Feb 20 $5 +$3 +70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Feb 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Feb 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Feb 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Feb 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Feb 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 16 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 16 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 16 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 16 $3 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 16 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 16 $5 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Feb 16 $6 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 16 $5 +$9 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% +$1
crypto 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 44¢ $1 6m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 29¢ $409 7m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 29¢ $1 7m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $1 8m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 17¢ $512 59m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $943 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 39¢ $378 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Legacy 6¢ $215 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 31¢ $510 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 25¢ $511 3h
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 34¢ $54 6d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BUY GamerLegion 53¢ $109 8d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 33¢ $2 8d
Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 60¢ $2 8d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 77¢ $3 8d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Cl BUY Enjoy 33¢ $1 9d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Eu BUY L1ga Team 48¢ $1 10d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western BUY LGD Gaming 95¢ $1 10d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western BUY LGD Gaming 80¢ $1 10d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 73¢ $2 20d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 51¢ $10 23d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 51¢ $10 23d
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner BUY MASONIC 22¢ $7 85d
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner BUY MASONIC 22¢ $4 85d
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner BUY MASONIC 22¢ $0 85d
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner BUY MASONIC 22¢ $3 85d
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner BUY MASONIC 19¢ $1 85d
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner BUY MASONIC 19¢ $2 85d
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner BUY MASONIC 19¢ $2 85d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY FaZe 18¢ $5 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -9.9% -18.5% 33% 33% -27.9%
≤30d 12 +8.1% -2.2% 58% 58% -21.8%
≤90d 21 +13.5% +2.7% 48% 48% -19.2%
all 53 -21.2% -28.7% 38% 38% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 38% -21.9%
10% -35.5% 36% -29.4%
15% -41.8% 30% -36.2%
20% -47.5% 26% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,160.22 · official $1,539.81 · 110 history records