Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x499f…ccaf
sports · 138 markets active 3h ago
8.5score
+$63,971 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$64,079 · open −$108
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34,891
Realized+$64,079
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses67 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,386
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage152d
Avg bet$2,537
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 1 History 137 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$13,768
30 days+$13,768
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $35,000 $34,891 −$108 (-0%)
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) B8 35¢ 0¢ $2,853 $0 −$2,853 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 27¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $5,000 $0 −$5,000 (-100%)
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1,956 $0 −$1,956 (-100%)
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-01-17? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $2,516 $0 −$2,516 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs FURIA 19¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-01-29? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $605 $0 −$605 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 24¢ 0¢ $269 $0 −$269 (-100%)
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $8,000 $0 −$8,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 30¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Natus Vincere 24¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 7¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will SK Brann win on 2026-01-29? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-03? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $1,600 $0 −$1,600 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Team Falcons 31¢ 0¢ $1,400 $0 −$1,400 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 5¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-19? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $5,000 $0 −$5,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner FURIA 40¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $15,000 $0 −$15,000 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $2,932 $0 −$2,932 (-100%)
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5) PARIVISION 39¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Nets vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $5,000 $0 −$5,000 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-11? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-07? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $20,390 +$40,768 +200%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $12,287 −$12,000 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15,270 −$15,000 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5,115 −$5,000 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $15,310 −$15,000 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 28 $10,000 +$12,139 +121%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $7,000 −$6,836 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 15 $5,000 +$16,530 +331%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $10,000 +$16,516 +165%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 14 $5,000 −$4,899 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 14 $5,000 +$6,429 +129%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 09 $1,500 +$2,343 +156%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs EYEBALLERS - Map 2 Winner Apr 09 $3,500 +$3,660 +105%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 09 $7,000 +$7,830 +112%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10,000 +$8,602 +86%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 09 $5,000 +$10,306 +206%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 08 $3,000 +$5,192 +173%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $2,000 −$1,952 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $3,000 −$2,932 -98%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $2,000 −$1,956 -98%
Nets vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5 Mar 27 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 27 $4,933 −$4,933 -100%
Will France win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $5,000 +$6,111 +122%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 26 $3,500 +$4,036 +115%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Mar 24 $2,000 +$1,448 +72%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Mar 21 $2,000 +$2,546 +127%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 21 $4,000 +$2,177 +54%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $5,000 −$4,088 -82%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Mar 20 $5,000 +$3,362 +67%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Mar 20 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Mar 20 $3,000 −$2,913 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Mar 20 $4,000 −$1,386 -35%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5) Mar 19 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $5,000 +$3,475 +70%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Mar 18 $2,000 +$1,586 +79%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Mar 18 $5,000 −$2,572 -51%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $2,000 +$1,316 +66%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Mar 16 $2,000 +$1,603 +80%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 4 Winner Mar 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playo Mar 15 $5,000 +$4,259 +85%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Mar 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Mar 13 $5,000 +$3,929 +79%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $4,000 +$4,889 +122%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 56% −$4,817
sports 43% +$65,692
culture 1% +$2,718
world 0% +$377
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $35,881 2h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $5,070 13d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 19¢ $2,049 13d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 21¢ $5,119 13d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 20¢ $5,120 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $15,270 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $5,115 37d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 29¢ $15,319 37d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 31¢ $15,310 44d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $10,000 54d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $7,000 58d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $5,000 59d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 10¢ $3,000 59d
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) BUY FC Barcelona 33¢ $5,000 59d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $5,000 59d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 23¢ $5,000 59d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $5,000 61d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs BUY Astralis 38¢ $1,500 64d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs EYEBALLERS - Map 2 Winner BUY Astralis 48¢ $3,500 64d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs BUY 3DMAX 31¢ $2,000 64d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs BUY 3DMAX 58¢ $5,000 64d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 18¢ $5,000 65d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 32¢ $5,000 65d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 53¢ $10,000 65d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 20¢ $2,000 66d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 15¢ $1,000 66d
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-06? BUY Yes 37¢ $3,000 66d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 35¢ $2,000 66d
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 27¢ $2,000 73d
Nets vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5,000 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 33% +16.8%
≤90d 45 +12.3% +1.6% 49% 49% +11.9%
all 137 +22.6% +10.9% 49% 49% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.9% 49% +9.1%
10% ← realistic here +0.3% 48% -1.4%
15% -9.4% 47% -10.9%
20% -18.3% 47% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34,891.30 · official $34,891.30 (match) · 275 history records