Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:10:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x49a3…b44a
other · 21 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$22 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12 · open −$39
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$559
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)5 / 21
History coverage7d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 16 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 27¢ 27¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $74 $64 −$10 (-14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 81¢ $66 $60 −$5 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 52¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $37 $7 −$30 (-81%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $48 +$28 +58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $47 +$19 +41%
Will Turkiye win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $81 +$23 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 72% −$29
sports 12% +$37
world 8% −$5
politics 4% −$30
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $15 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $33 13h
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 17h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 17h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 17h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 30h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 30h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 30h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 30h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 30h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 2¢ $5 39h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $66 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $47 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $48 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 8¢ $34 4d
Will Turkiye win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 77¢ $81 7d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 27¢ $114 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $77 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $25 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.1% +5.0% 80% 80% -5.5%
≤30d 5 +16.1% +5.0% 80% 80% -5.5%
≤90d 5 +16.1% +5.0% 80% 80% -5.5%
all 5 +16.1% +5.0% 80% 80% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 80% -5.5%
10% -5.0% 80% -14.5%
15% -14.2% 60% -22.8%
20% -22.6% 40% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $558.66 · official $558.66 (match) · 37 history records