Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x49a7…5eff
crypto · 1678 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$53 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$53 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1484 / 195
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1679 / 1678
History coverage114d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1679 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$21
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 90¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 80¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$42
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 7h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 90¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -2.3% -11.6% 85% 63% -12.8%
≤30d 614 -3.1% -12.3% 85% 60% -12.6%
≤90d 761 -2.9% -12.2% 86% 49% -12.4%
all 1679 -1.4% -10.8% 88% 28% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 28% -10.7%
10% -19.3% 2% -19.3%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.61 · official $2.49 (match) · 3500 history records