Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:11:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x49ac…2f1e
crypto · 1091 markets active 0h ago
5.0score
+$22,395 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$28,290 · open −$5,895
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28,346
Realized+$28,290
Unrealized−$5,895
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses496 / 556
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$2,342
Open positions38
Markets (closed)1052 / 1091
History coverage72d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 38 History 1052 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,615
7 days+$8,400
14 days+$10,545
30 days+$3,130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 92¢ 89¢ $10,000 $9,723 −$277 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 87¢ 74¢ $10,000 $8,563 −$1,437 (-14%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Vitality 85¢ 44¢ $6,300 $3,312 −$2,988 (-47%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Spirit 66¢ 54¢ $2,800 $2,296 −$504 (-18%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1,095 $931 −$164 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $300 $402 +$102 (+34%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 22¢ 26¢ $280 $336 +$56 (+20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $300 $266 −$34 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ 30¢ $100 $184 +$84 (+84%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $200 $184 −$16 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $200 $180 −$20 (-10%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $100 $149 +$49 (+49%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? No 14¢ 19¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $300 $116 −$184 (-61%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $105 $101 −$4 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $106 $95 −$11 (-11%)
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 38¢ 33¢ $106 $92 −$14 (-13%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 9¢ 8¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$40 +97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $460 +$353 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $605 +$251 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,009 +$398 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$31 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$42 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$40 +97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $458 −$450 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$40 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$18 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$27 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% +$23,980
crypto 13% −$518
world 2% +$500
other 1% −$593
politics 1% −$490
economics 0% −$158
tech 0% −$211
culture 0% +$54
finance 0% −$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 55¢ $304 7m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 31¢ $306 29m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 60¢ $506 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $42 50m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 82¢ $2,011 51m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $10,039 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 87¢ $6,023 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 44¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 18¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 92¢ $10,024 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $856 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $1,407 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 53¢ $693 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 244 -16.5% -24.4% 41% 41% +5.0%
≤30d 605 -11.9% -20.3% 39% 39% -7.7%
≤90d 1052 -4.4% -13.5% 47% 46% -1.2%
all 1052 -4.4% -13.5% 47% 46% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 46% -1.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 42% -10.6%
15% -29.3% 38% -19.3%
20% -36.2% 33% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,345.79 · official $28,390.21 (match) · 2849 history records