Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:42:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
49 0x49b5…d249 world 295 markets active 0h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 283d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,754 (+7%) realized +$5,494 · open +$260
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate59%145W / 102L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$3,470now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$236
14 days−$238
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% +$1,050
world 29% +$895
sports 16% +$21
other 8% +$1,175
tech 5% +$51
crypto 3% −$14
weather 0% −$125
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -18.6% -26.4% 37% 11% -10.0%
≤30d 29 -9.6% -18.3% 38% 14% -10.0%
≤90d 56 -4.8% -13.9% 54% 18% -9.0%
all 247 +3.9% -6.0% 59% 24% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 24% -5.8%
10% -15.0% 14% -14.8%
15% -23.2% 10% -23.1%
20% -30.8% 6% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$12 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.44 per $1 lost it wins $3.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$3,470
Realized+$5,494
Unrealized+$260
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses145 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions48
Markets (closed)247 / 295
History coverage283d ⚠
Avg bet$270
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $1,038 $1,041 +$4 (+0%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 95¢ 98¢ $526 $546 +$20 (+4%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $398 $404 +$6 (+2%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 99¢ $14 $356 +$341 (+2373%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? No 81¢ 82¢ $193 $194 +$2 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Yes 61¢ 61¢ $191 $190 −$0 (-0%)
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $106 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $97 $99 +$2 (+2%)
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? No 89¢ 88¢ $93 $92 −$0 (-0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 95¢ 99¢ $63 $65 +$3 (+4%)
Will voter turnout be between 47% and 50% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-2%)
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? Yes 23¢ 19¢ $36 $30 −$6 (-16%)
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%? No 55¢ 48¢ $33 $29 −$4 (-13%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-15%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? Yes $17 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? Yes $22 $17 −$6 (-26%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? Yes $4 $12 +$8 (+214%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? Yes $9 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? Yes $6 $11 +$5 (+74%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027? Yes $5 $11 +$6 (+109%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes $10 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes $13 $10 −$3 (-25%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? Yes $39 $9 −$29 (-76%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? Yes $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $17 $0 +1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $19,200 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $112 +$8 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $15 −$7 -49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $284 −$91 -32%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $707 −$140 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $323 +$8 +3%
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Jun 15 $12 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $174 $0 -0%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $595 +$3 +0%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 −$2 -25%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 $0 -15%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Jun 13 $1 $0 -49%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $302 −$17 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $140 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $37 −$4 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $84 −$26 -31%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $15 +$1 +10%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? May 25 $43 −$2 -4%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? May 25 $31 +$28 +91%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $4 −$2 -45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner May 11 $3 −$1 -39%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 - Map 1 Winner May 09 $9 +$1 +15%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? May 09 $1,191 +$65 +5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? May 01 $204 −$66 -32%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $211 +$89 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +15%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 20 $14 −$2 -16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $3 $0 -7%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Apr 18 $4 −$1 -15%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $6 +$3 +43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 13 $95 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Apr 06 $6 −$3 -50%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $191 +$9 +5%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? Apr 01 $95 +$5 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $267 +$26 +10%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? Apr 01 $202 +$54 +27%
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $454 +$27 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $336 +$17 +5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 29 $197 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL Yes 53¢ $1 10m
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 10m
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL Yes 53¢ $10 10m
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 53¢ $10 11m
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliame BUY Yes 30¢ $31 17m
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 26m
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 42m
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $41 52m
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 53¢ $11 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 53¢ $22 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 53¢ $22 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL Yes 47¢ $24 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL Yes 47¢ $4 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 46¢ $28 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No 55¢ $34 1h
Will voter turnout be between 47% and 50% in the 2026 Russian parliame BUY Yes 26¢ $27 2h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 3h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $11 4h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $24 4h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL No 94¢ $47 4h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL No 94¢ $28 4h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL No 94¢ $47 4h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL No 94¢ $31 4h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL No 94¢ $47 4h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL No 94¢ $47 4h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL No 94¢ $16 4h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL No 94¢ $31 4h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY No 94¢ $47 4h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY No 94¢ $47 4h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL No 93¢ $93 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,470.21 · official $3,470.21 (match) · 3500 history records