Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:29:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
49 0x49b6…170c other 508 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 194d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$61,094 (+15%) realized +$40,095 · open +$20,999
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate61%290W / 186L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$828per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$46,896now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 195d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$15,714
politics 18% +$102
world 15% +$4,679
sports 12% −$6,433
culture 9% +$4,847
crypto 2% +$461
economics 1% +$1,513
tech 0% +$34
finance 0% +$319
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +64.7% +49.0% 35% 22% -9.5%
≤30d 86 +54.6% +39.8% 49% 28% +9.2%
≤90d 236 +26.5% +14.4% 50% 28% -9.8%
all 476 +14.0% +3.1% 61% 26% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.1% 26% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -6.8% 19% -18.1%
15% -15.8% 14% -26.0%
20% -24.0% 13% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$937) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$348 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$46,896
Realized+$40,095
Unrealized+$20,999
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses290 / 186
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions32
Markets (closed)476 / 508
History coverage195d ⚠
Avg bet$828
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 476 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 24¢ 74¢ $8,571 $26,351 +$17,780 (+207%)
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? No 90¢ 92¢ $4,820 $4,954 +$134 (+3%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 43¢ 66¢ $2,697 $4,182 +$1,486 (+55%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 72¢ $3,195 $3,515 +$321 (+10%)
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? No 86¢ 92¢ $1,722 $1,858 +$136 (+8%)
Will Gustavo Puerta be in Colombia's Starting 11? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $402 $986 +$584 (+145%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 36¢ 92¢ $357 $909 +$553 (+155%)
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $850 $898 +$49 (+6%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $631 $655 +$23 (+4%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 58¢ 99¢ $320 $547 +$226 (+71%)
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $486 $499 +$12 (+3%)
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? Yes 33¢ 18¢ $530 $297 −$233 (-44%)
Will Luis Javier Suárez be in Colombia's Starting 11? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $248 $247 −$1 (-0%)
Will Luis Díaz be in Colombia's Starting 11? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $127 $126 −$1 (-0%)
Will Davinson Sánchez be in Colombia's Starting 11? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $113 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 69¢ 81¢ $69 $81 +$12 (+17%)
Will Jhon Arias be in Colombia's Starting 11? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? Yes 29¢ 36¢ $36 $45 +$8 (+22%)
Will Austria participate in Eurovision 2027? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $31 $36 +$5 (+17%)
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $42 $36 −$6 (-14%)
Will Spain win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $73 $34 −$39 (-53%)
Will Tunisia concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 3¢ 16¢ $5 $33 +$28 (+524%)
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 50¢ 68¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+37%)
Will Germany win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+40%)
Will Jordan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+750%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elliot Anderson be in England's Starting 11? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Reece James be in England's Starting 11? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Bruno Fernandes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rodrigo De Paul be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lisandro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Thiago Almada be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Gerónimo Rulli be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Emiliano Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $58 +$191 +330%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$4 +24%
Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $238 +$22 +9%
Will Amadou Onana be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 16 $95 −$95 -100%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 15? Jun 15 $618 −$12 -2%
Will Brandon Mechele be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Nathan Ngoy be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Pau Cubarsí be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Leandro Trossard be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Rodri be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Ferran Torres be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Unai Simón be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $67 +$71 +106%
Will Trump post "Football" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $53 +$12 +22%
Will Trump post "Soccer" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $76 +$13 +17%
Will Trump post "The Pope" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $110 +$10 +10%
Will the announcers say "White House" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $139 +$1 +1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $314 +$2 +1%
Will Ritsu Doan be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Daichi Kamada be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Keito Nakamura be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Ko Itakura be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $21 +$198 +924%
Will Junya Ito be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $24 +$233 +966%
Will Daizen Maeda be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $29 +$424 +1471%
Will Manuel Neuer be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Kai Havertz be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Türkiye go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $387 +$11 +3%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu: 1+ shots Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Arda Güler: 4+ shots Jun 14 $2 +$3 +146%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$25 +1845%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 08 $1,272 −$186 -15%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $976 +$198 +20%
Spread: Denmark (-1.5) Jun 08 $291 +$94 +32%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $6,530 +$1,469 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jhon Arias be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $78 1h
Will Davinson Sánchez be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $113 1h
Will Luis Javier Suárez be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $248 1h
Will Luis Díaz be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 1h
Will Gustavo Puerta be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $285 1h
Will Germany win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5h
Will Germany win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 11h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $135 12h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $554 18h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $316 18h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $9 19h
Will Jordan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Will Germany win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 21h
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 40¢ $49 22h
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 16¢ $23 22h
Will Reece James be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 4¢ $18 22h
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 4¢ $17 22h
Will Elliot Anderson be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 3¢ $17 22h
Will Daniel Muñoz be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 2¢ $4 22h
Will Luis Javier Suárez be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 4¢ $0 22h
Will Johan Mojica be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 3¢ $5 22h
Will Bruno Fernandes be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 1¢ $4 22h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 3¢ $8 22h
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 11¢ $6 23h
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 14¢ $37 27h
Will Germany win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 27h
Will Germany win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 27h
Will Thiago Almada be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 9¢ $13 29h
Will Lisandro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 11¢ $6 29h
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 6¢ $10 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46,895.61 · official $46,896.33 (match) · 3500 history records