Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:30:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
49 0x49b7…4929 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$393 (-20%) realized −$377 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$994now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$225
sports 18% −$135
politics 15% −$3
crypto 3% −$48
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +23.7% +11.9% 100% 67% -2.8%
≤30d 3 +23.7% +11.9% 100% 67% -2.8%
≤90d 3 +23.7% +11.9% 100% 67% -2.8%
all 12 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 33% -46.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 33% -46.8%
10% -19.4% 25% -51.9%
15% -27.2% 17% -56.6%
20% -34.3% 8% -60.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$87 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$994
Realized−$377
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)12 / 24
History coverage223d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 22? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 22? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 22 $25 +$1 +2%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Ben Shelton vs Felix Auger-Al Nov 12 $159 −$159 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor F Nov 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 5–10%? Nov 11 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Tottenham vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Nov 11 $40 +$120 +300%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $209 −$209 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by less than 5%? Nov 08 $200 $0 -0%
Clippers vs. Suns Nov 08 $46 +$5 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 5? Nov 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 22? BUY Up 72¢ $2 176d
Ethereum Up or Down on December 22? BUY Up 76¢ $3 176d
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025? BUY No 99¢ $20 176d
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Ben Shelton vs Felix Auger-Al BUY Shelton 80¢ $159 216d
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor F BUY Fritz 56¢ $100 217d
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 5–10%? SELL Yes 97¢ $98 217d
Will Tottenham vs. Manchester United end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $40 220d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? BUY Yes 65¢ $209 220d
Will Zohran Mamdani win by less than 5%? SELL No 100¢ $200 220d
Clippers vs. Suns BUY Suns 90¢ $46 221d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 5? BUY Down 93¢ $25 222d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 5? BUY Down 93¢ $25 222d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 98¢ $25 222d
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 5–10%? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 222d
Will Zohran Mamdani win by less than 5%? BUY No 100¢ $200 222d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $993.52 · official $993.98 (match) · 33 history records