Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
49 0x49b9…9613 sports 867 markets active 0h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,733 (+2%) realized +$1,736 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate73%633W / 231L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$320
7 days−$580
14 days−$627
30 days−$586
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$640
other 39% +$1,601
crypto 6% −$407
politics 5% +$852
world 1% +$331
culture 0% +$70
economics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -16.9% -24.8% 59% 54% -20.1%
≤30d 137 -3.3% -12.5% 68% 64% -17.5%
≤90d 172 -2.0% -11.3% 69% 63% -9.1%
all 864 -1.7% -11.0% 73% 64% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 64% -7.6%
10% -19.5% 41% -16.4%
15% -27.3% 22% -24.5%
20% -34.4% 11% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$52 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized+$1,736
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses633 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions3
Markets (closed)864 / 867
History coverage606d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 864 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 59¢ 64¢ $93 $102 +$9 (+9%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 86¢ 100¢ $60 $70 +$10 (+16%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Under 21¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $151 +$59 +39%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 17 $63 +$64 +102%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $130 +$40 +31%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $99 −$78 -79%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $91 +$30 +33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$59 -59%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $72 +$19 +27%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $62 +$14 +23%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $66 +$14 +22%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $151 +$59 +39%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$12 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $103 +$23 +22%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $75 +$19 +26%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $47 +$15 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $41 +$7 +16%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $200 −$160 -80%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $276 +$22 +8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $60 +$12 +21%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $21 +$5 +24%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $236 +$18 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $37 +$13 +36%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $117 +$24 +20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $97 +$22 +22%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $45 +$24 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $135 +$45 +33%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $19 +$11 +60%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $35 +$14 +40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $38 +$12 +30%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $30 +$10 +34%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $25 +$14 +54%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $14 +$11 +73%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $26 +$14 +52%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $70 +$30 +43%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $35 +$15 +43%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 +$8 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 59¢ $94 22m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $21 40m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $60 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 100¢ $210 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 72¢ $13 3h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 72¢ $36 3h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 72¢ $4 3h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 72¢ $5 3h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 72¢ $6 3h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 72¢ $34 3h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 72¢ $24 3h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 72¢ $14 3h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 72¢ $14 3h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. SELL No 99¢ $127 4h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY No 49¢ $4 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY No 49¢ $59 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $170 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 76¢ $130 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 19¢ $21 7h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 17¢ $21 7h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 81¢ $99 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $121 8h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 25¢ $41 8h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $50 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 85¢ $172 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 85¢ $3 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 85¢ $36 10h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 98¢ $91 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.85 · official $171.85 (match) · 2585 history records