Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49b9…3f78 politics 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$524 (+0%) realized +$525 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate23%31W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,101per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$18
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$92
other 36% −$117
sports 8% +$726
economics 5% −$7
world 4% −$9
culture 2% −$4
crypto 2% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 75 -14.2% -22.4% 7% 3% -9.5%
all 133 -1.8% -11.1% 23% 8% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 8% -9.2%
10% -19.6% 8% -17.9%
15% -27.4% 8% -25.8%
20% -34.5% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,620) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$9 · ×5.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$1,229
Realized+$525
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses31 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)133 / 135
History coverage141d
Avg bet$1,101
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $892 $891 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $338 $337 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $1,779 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,501 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $311 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $1,214 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,568 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $2,959 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,584 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $4,827 −$5 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,579 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,679 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4,759 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $288 +$1 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,199 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,135 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,510 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $1,608 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $1,084 −$2 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 24 $1,315 −$2 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,427 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 19 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $4,076 −$5 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,680 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $5,633 −$6 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $1,701 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $1,706 −$2 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,725 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $3,235 −$4 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,693 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,724 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $4,084 −$5 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $1,665 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,654 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,592 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $722 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $1,151 +$2 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,585 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,340 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,361 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,665 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,511 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $1,610 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $338 1h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $241 3h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $242 5h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $268 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $268 2d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $310 2d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $311 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $892 3d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,213 5d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,214 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,534 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,537 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,566 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,568 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,535 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,537 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,487 9d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,489 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,632 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,633 9d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,304 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,306 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,581 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,584 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,581 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,583 17d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,577 17d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,579 17d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,676 17d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,679 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,228.59 · official $1,228.59 (match) · 425 history records