Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:39:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49b9…d97a other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$107 (-2%) realized −$113 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$24
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$48
world 29% −$47
weather 17% −$3
sports 5% −$37
politics 3% −$6
economics 1% +$5
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +39.9% +26.5% 28% 28% -15.2%
≤30d 34 +20.1% +8.6% 47% 15% -12.5%
≤90d 34 +20.1% +8.6% 47% 15% -12.5%
all 34 +20.1% +8.6% 47% 15% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 15% -12.5%
10% -1.8% 12% -20.9%
15% -11.2% 6% -28.5%
20% -19.9% 6% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)34 / 41
History coverage29d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $99 $101 +$2 (+2%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 78¢ 88¢ $39 $43 +$5 (+12%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-19%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 8¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 +$19 +152%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $25 +$6 +24%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 +$47 +1521%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $14 −$4 -30%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +17%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $89 +$2 +2%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $121 −$1 -1%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Gove Jun 10 $30 −$8 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $46 +$2 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $71 −$13 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 07 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 6? Jun 07 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 05 $57 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,301 −$47 -4%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,976 −$73 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $25 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 20¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 21¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $17 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $12 18h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 80¢ $25 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $44 25h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? SELL No 51¢ $5 27h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 54¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 39h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 45h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 2d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $39 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 8¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 85¢ $8 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 49¢ $4 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 50¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 7d
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? BUY No 94¢ $60 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.28 · official $166.28 (match) · 85 history records