Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
49 0x49bc…8e3c sports 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,218 (+11%) realized +$4,221 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate79%38W / 10L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$715per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$235
7 days+$881
14 days+$1,193
30 days+$3,300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% +$3,423
sports 4% +$686
other 4% +$85
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +52.8% +38.2% 88% 88% +32.0%
≤30d 46 +30.6% +18.2% 78% 74% +1.3%
≤90d 48 +29.7% +17.3% 79% 73% +0.5%
all 48 +29.7% +17.3% 79% 73% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.3% 73% +0.5%
10% +6.1% 67% -9.2%
15% -4.1% 56% -17.9%
20% -13.5% 44% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$60 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.0 per $1 lost it wins $8.0
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized+$4,221
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses38 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions6
Markets (closed)48 / 54
History coverage59d
Avg bet$715
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 63¢ 63¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Curaçao 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Tunisia 65¢ 64¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 35¢ 34¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $81 +$25 +31%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 +$46 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$53 +105%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $81 +$26 +32%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $50 +$11 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$32 +40%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$35 +44%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$39 +129%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$26 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$39 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$41 +134%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$33 +65%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 +$68 +134%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $51 +$28 +55%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 +$18 +44%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $60 +$17 +27%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 +$25 +83%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $81 +$48 +60%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $81 +$35 +44%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $50 +$17 +34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $9,458 +$533 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $61 +$26 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $41 +$28 +70%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $101 +$58 +57%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 03 $8,585 +$372 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $6,898 +$1,689 +24%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 25 $56 +$45 +81%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 16 $5,550 +$348 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 04 $5,000 +$550 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 65¢ $51 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $31 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 39h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $51 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $81 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $81 2d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 75¢ $81 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $51 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $50 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $51 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $51 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $81 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $31 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $81 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $40 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $81 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $31 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $71 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $51 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $527.13 · official $527.14 (match) · 99 history records