Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x49c2…92fb
other · 91 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$14 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses13 / 78
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage81d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 0 History 91 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $134 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $26 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $410 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $400 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $118 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $124 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $121 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $237 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $127 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $118 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $225 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $367 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $128 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $118 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $116 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $121 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $339 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $128 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $129 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $127 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $127 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $239 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $126 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $129 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $117 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $119 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $124 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 13 $341 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $121 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $257 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $127 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 12 $131 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 11 $125 $0 -0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $127 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $125 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $134 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $450 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 56% −$6
politics 22% −$3
sports 8% +$23
economics 6% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $21 6h
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $22 7d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $22 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 8d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 9d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 17d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 17d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $17 18d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $17 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 19d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 19d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $26 22d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $26 23d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 24d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 24d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 47¢ $7 24d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $25 25d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $25 25d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 25d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 26d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 26d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $118 29d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $118 29d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $114 30d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $114 30d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $124 37d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $124 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -7.2% -16.1% 7% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 91 +2.4% -7.3% 14% 10% -9.4%
all 91 +2.4% -7.3% 14% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 10% -9.4%
10% -16.2% 10% -18.1%
15% -24.3% 10% -26.0%
20% -31.7% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 254 history records