Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
49 0x49c2…13d2 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$136 (+2%) realized +$166 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$617per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$32
sports 8% +$695
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.3% -8.3% 56% 33% +2.0%
≤30d 9 +1.3% -8.3% 56% 33% +2.0%
≤90d 9 +1.3% -8.3% 56% 33% +2.0%
all 9 +1.3% -8.3% 56% 33% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 33% +2.0%
10% -17.1% 33% -7.7%
15% -25.1% 33% -16.7%
20% -32.5% 22% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$419 vs −$350 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$666
Realized+$166
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$617
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $696 $666 −$30 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $201 +$20 +10%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $303 +$114 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $206 −$200 -97%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06 Jun 28 $197 +$581 +294%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $613 −$600 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $613 −$600 -98%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,302 +$63 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,034 +$1,316 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $704 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 15h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $303 15h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 91¢ $201 15h
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 1¢ $206 16h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06 BUY 25¢ $197 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $307 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $307 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $307 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $307 21h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,302 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $2,034 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $665.54 · official $665.54 (match) · 18 history records