Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:52:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
49 0x49c4…bf77 other 360 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$32,504 (-19%) realized −$13,934 · open −$18,570
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate84%137W / 27L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$465per market
Trades / day60.1pace
Fees−$482est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$76,385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$23,598
sports 20% +$24,711
crypto 16% −$3,909
world 11% +$366
politics 4% +$535
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+51.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +40.9% +27.5% 100% 55% +16.4%
≤30d 101 +13.2% +2.4% 77% 30% -26.3%
≤90d 164 +67.4% +51.4% 84% 45% +3.6%
all 164 +67.4% +51.4% 84% 45% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +51.4% 45% +3.6%
10% +37.0% 31% -6.4%
15% ← realistic here +23.7% 23% -15.4%
20% +11.6% 18% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +110% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$251 vs −$658 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$76,385
Realized−$13,934
Unrealized−$18,570
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses137 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$482
Open positions215
Markets (closed)164 / 360
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$465
Trades / day60.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 215 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $8,736 $8,966 +$230 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $5,579 $6,926 +$1,347 (+24%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $6,064 $5,238 −$826 (-14%)
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $4,530 $4,744 +$213 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $4,314 $4,086 −$228 (-5%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $3,171 $3,138 −$33 (-1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $3,029 $3,080 +$51 (+2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 86¢ 95¢ $2,328 $2,559 +$230 (+10%)
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $2,230 $2,478 +$247 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2,479 $2,064 −$414 (-17%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 84¢ $1,516 $1,931 +$415 (+27%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 52¢ 5¢ $18,965 $1,901 −$17,064 (-90%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,285 $1,328 +$44 (+3%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 88¢ 86¢ $1,191 $1,174 −$17 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $645 $837 +$192 (+30%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $727 $761 +$34 (+5%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 88¢ $679 $704 +$25 (+4%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 38¢ $381 $684 +$303 (+80%)
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $642 $639 −$2 (-0%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 74¢ $778 $631 −$148 (-19%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $553 $626 +$73 (+13%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $620 $542 −$78 (-12%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $536 $540 +$4 (+1%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 90¢ 94¢ $454 $477 +$23 (+5%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $802 $442 −$360 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $128 +$4 +3%
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 24 $607 +$65 +11%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $252 +$93 +37%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $227 +$51 +23%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $128 +$5 +4%
Will Bukayo Saka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $63 +$3 +5%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $578 +$222 +38%
Will Jordan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $23 +$5 +22%
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $562 +$140 +25%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $264 +$269 +102%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21 Jun 23 $101 +$62 +62%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $77 +$2 +3%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $467 +$11 +2%
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $682 +$62 +9%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,946 +$41 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a dr Jun 22 $26 +$121 +474%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 21 $953 +$37 +4%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $82 +$15 +19%
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $446 +$74 +17%
Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $106 +$61 +57%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 21 $489 +$1,041 +213%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $394 +$36 +9%
Will Martin Ødegaard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $144 +$4 +3%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $33 +$15 +47%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $134 +$16 +12%
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $224 +$2 +1%
Will Matheus Cunha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $45 +$11 +25%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $223 +$5 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $203 +$174 +86%
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 20 $47 +$1 +3%
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 19 $33 +$2 +6%
Will Rafael Leão score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $234 +$41 +18%
Will Alphonso Davies score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $77 +$3 +3%
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $147 +$38 +26%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $254 +$223 +88%
Will João Neves score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $67 +$60 +90%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $298 +$32 +11%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $132 +$3 +2%
Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $218 +$6 +3%
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will Neymar score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $230 +$10 +4%
Will João Cancelo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Martin Zubimendi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $52 +$11 +21%
Will João Pedro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Will Amad Diallo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +56%
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $128 +$21 +16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $210 +$51 +24%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $574 −$13 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $28 24m
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta SELL Yes 87¢ $4 53m
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $28 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $19 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $15 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $70 1h
Will Brazil finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 22¢ $22 1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $42 1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 1h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $69 1h
Will Cape Verde reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $149 1h
Will Bruno Fernandes stay at Manchester United? BUY Yes 92¢ $13 1h
Will Christian Pulisic score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $46 1h
Will Christian Pulisic score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $9 1h
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $28 2h
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $22 2h
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $99 2h
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $45 2h
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 2h
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez BUY Haaland 95¢ $25 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 5h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 70¢ $43 6h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 6h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 7h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $122 7h
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta SELL Yes 87¢ $1 7h
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta SELL Yes 87¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76,384.98 · official $76,385.46 (match) · 3500 history records