Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49c8…456f sports 193 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%17W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$3
sports 23% −$1
politics 18% −$3
crypto 10% −$2
economics 10% +$1
world 4% −$1
culture 4% −$1
tech 4% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 192 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses17 / 175
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)192 / 193
History coverage168d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 26 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Mar 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $172 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 24 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 23 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $135 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $220 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 21 $86 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $183 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 20 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $113 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $114 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $89 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 15 $40 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $154 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 11 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 09 $171 −$2 -1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 08 $83 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 07 $135 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 05 $231 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $95 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 13d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $42 27d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 27d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $43 34d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $44 34d
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 98¢ $46 89d
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 97¢ $46 89d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $36 89d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 93¢ $36 90d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? SELL No 97¢ $42 90d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $14 90d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $28 90d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? SELL No 97¢ $39 90d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 96¢ $39 90d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $39 90d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $39 90d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $40 90d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $40 91d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $34 91d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $34 91d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $43 91d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $24 91d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $19 91d
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 97¢ $33 91d
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 97¢ $33 91d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? SELL No 98¢ $34 91d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? BUY No 98¢ $34 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $34 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.27 · official $44.27 (match) · 736 history records