Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
49 0x49c8…3827 other 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$444per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$14
politics 28% −$5
world 23% −$2
economics 6% −$1
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$748) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage94d
Avg bet$444
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 30 $1,159 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 29 $1,261 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 29 $34 $0 -0%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Jun 29 $52 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 28 $1,249 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 28 $1,135 −$2 -0%
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 28 $1,259 −$1 -0%
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 28 $68 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Jun 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 28 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 16 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $716 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 14 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Bradley Barcola be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 14 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $743 −$8 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 05 $105 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Detry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $23 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Mar 28 $44 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 28 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 1m
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8m
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $192 18m
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 31m
Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? BUY No 100¢ $28 50m
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $899 56m
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $315 1h
Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $1,215 1h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 23h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 24h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 24h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 24h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1,248 24h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 24h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,231 24h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 25h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,134 25h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $18 25h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,135 25h
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,257 45h
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $68 45h
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 45h
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,225 45h
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 46h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $11 46h
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 46h
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 46h
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $874 46h
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.50 · official $75.50 (match) · 100 history records