Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x49c9…955c crypto 175 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$236 (+1%) realized +$236 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate90%157W / 18L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$821now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$195
other 1% $0
tech 0% +$16
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 34 +0.9% -8.7% 88% 3% -8.9%
≤90d 175 +0.0% -9.5% 90% 6% -9.0%
all 175 +0.0% -9.5% 90% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 6% -9.0%
10% -18.2% 4% -17.7%
15% -26.1% 3% -25.7%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.83 per $1 lost it wins $5.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$821
Realized+$236
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses157 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)175 / 175
History coverage82d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 175 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 24, 9PM ET? Jun 25 $119 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 24, 9PM ET? Jun 25 $119 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 24, 9PM ET? Jun 25 $116 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 60,000 on June 24, 9PM ET? Jun 25 $119 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,640 on June 24, 9PM ET? Jun 25 $119 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 24, 9PM ET? Jun 25 $114 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,590 on June 24, 9PM ET? Jun 25 $114 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7PM ET Jun 25 $240 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7PM ET Jun 25 $601 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET Jun 05 $500 +$1 +0%
Ethereum above 1,780 on June 4, 12AM ET? Jun 05 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum above 1,790 on June 4, 12AM ET? Jun 05 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 05 $400 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 04 $501 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 04 $801 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11PM ET Jun 03 $300 +$6 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $500 +$5 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10PM ET Jun 02 $600 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10PM ET Jun 02 $141 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 02 $321 +$9 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? Jun 02 $466 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12AM ET May 28 $311 +$12 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27? May 28 $786 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin above 75,600 on May 27, 9PM ET? May 28 $149 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 74,000 on May 27, 7PM ET? May 28 $149 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,065 on May 27, 7PM ET? May 28 $149 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 75,200 on May 27, 7PM ET? May 28 $149 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 28 $339 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 27 $206 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 25? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 25? May 27 $149 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on May 25? May 27 $600 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 26 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin above 79,800 on May 9, 9PM ET? May 12 $149 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 81,400 on May 9, 9PM ET? May 12 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 80,200 on May 9, 9PM ET? May 12 $399 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 10 $50 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 10 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 09 $740 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin above 79,600 on May 6, 1AM ET? May 07 $342 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 83,200 on May 6, 1AM ET? May 07 $405 +$1 +0%
Ethereum above 2,430 on May 5, 11PM ET? May 06 $57 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,415 on May 5, 11PM ET? May 06 $149 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,325 on May 5, 11PM ET? May 06 $149 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,400 on May 5, 11PM ET? May 06 $149 $0 +0%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.25 by April 30? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on April 29? May 01 $149 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $557 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 24, 9PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 24, 9PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 24, 9PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin above 60,000 on June 24, 9PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $119 1h
Ethereum above 1,640 on June 24, 9PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $119 1h
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 24, 9PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $114 1h
Ethereum above 1,590 on June 24, 9PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $114 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $240 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $600 19d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $500 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $400 20d
Ethereum above 1,790 on June 4, 12AM ET? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 20d
Ethereum above 1,780 on June 4, 12AM ET? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $501 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $801 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $300 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $141 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $600 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $321 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $311 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $465 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $784 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin above 75,600 on May 27, 9PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $149 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $339 28d
Bitcoin above 75,200 on May 27, 7PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $149 28d
Bitcoin above 74,000 on May 27, 7PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $149 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $821.06 · official $821.06 (match) · 404 history records