Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:03:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49ce…1256 crypto 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$330 (-2%) realized −$330 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%89W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$11
weather 32% −$343
other 3% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 27 -3.5% -12.7% 96% 0% -16.8%
all 91 -0.9% -10.4% 98% 0% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -11.7%
10% -18.9% 0% -20.2%
15% -26.8% 0% -27.9%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$349 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$330
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses89 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage142d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $107 $107 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $107 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $106 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $106 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on June Jun 18 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 27? Jun 17 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 11? Apr 10 $350 −$349 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on April 10? Apr 10 $351 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or below on April 8? Apr 09 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 8? Apr 09 $194 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C or below on April 8? Apr 08 $349 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on April 6? Apr 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on April 6? Apr 07 $325 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on April 5? Apr 06 $325 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 4? Apr 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 3? Apr 04 $347 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 1? Apr 03 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 1? Apr 03 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 3? Apr 02 $43 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $245 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 01 $101 +$1 +1%
Will BNB dip to $200 in March? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? Apr 01 $90 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March? Apr 01 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on April 2? Apr 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on March 31? Apr 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 30? Mar 31 $210 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Mar 31 $20 $0 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on March 29? Mar 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on March 28? Mar 29 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on March 28? Mar 29 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 26? Mar 26 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C or higher on March 26? Mar 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 26? Mar 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.00 on March 25? Mar 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on March 2 Mar 25 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 83°F or below on March 25? Mar 25 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 25? Mar 24 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on Marc Mar 24 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on March 23? Mar 24 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on March 23? Mar 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 23? Mar 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma Mar 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on March 23? Mar 22 $182 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on March 20? Mar 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C or below on March 21? Mar 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 21 Mar 22 $182 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 77°F or below on March 20? Mar 21 $281 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $107 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $107 47h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $107 3d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C or below on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $106 8d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $106 10d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $106 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $106 32d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 11? BUY No 98¢ $350 79d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on April 10? SELL No 100¢ $248 79d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on April 10? SELL No 100¢ $5 79d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on April 10? SELL No 100¢ $12 79d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on April 10? SELL No 100¢ $21 79d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on April 10? SELL No 100¢ $10 79d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on April 10? SELL No 100¢ $25 79d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on April 10? SELL No 100¢ $5 79d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on April 10? SELL No 100¢ $5 79d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on April 10? SELL No 100¢ $5 79d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on April 10? SELL No 100¢ $5 79d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on April 10? SELL No 100¢ $2 79d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on April 10? SELL No 100¢ $3 79d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on April 10? SELL No 100¢ $5 79d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $351 80d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or below on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $155 82d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $194 82d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C or below on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $349 83d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $325 84d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $23 85d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $23 85d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on April 5? BUY No 100¢ $325 85d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $347 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.56 · official $106.56 (match) · 219 history records