trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +427.4% | +377.2% | 100% | 100% | +223.6% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +43.7% | +30.0% | 30% | 30% | +55.8% |
| all | 34 | -20.6% | -28.2% | 29% | 29% | -4.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -28.2% | 29% | -4.2% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -35.0% | 26% | -13.3% |
| 15% | -41.3% | 26% | -21.7% |
| 20% | -47.1% | 21% | -29.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | $428 | $473 | +$45 (+10%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $3,000 | $15 | −$2,985 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 16 | $2,213 | +$14,854 | +671% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 16 | $12,350 | +$22,662 | +184% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Apr 10 | $2,680 | −$1,955 | -73% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Apr 10 | $367 | −$367 | -100% |
| Will Senegal win on 2025-10-14? | Apr 10 | $665 | −$665 | -100% |
| Steelers vs. Bengals | Apr 10 | $2,415 | −$2,415 | -100% |
| Will Italy win on 2025-10-14? | Apr 10 | $1,440 | −$1,440 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Apr 10 | $1,050 | +$1,950 | +186% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | Apr 05 | $5,066 | −$5,066 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 05 | $11,480 | −$438 | -4% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 27 | $10,524 | −$8,494 | -81% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | Mar 10 | $1,800 | −$1,300 | -72% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Mar 07 | $1,971 | −$574 | -29% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Mar 02 | $715 | +$1,392 | +195% |
| Maduro out in 2025? | Nov 29 | $220 | −$220 | -100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | Nov 14 | $1,694 | −$1,694 | -100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7? | Oct 31 | $266 | −$266 | -100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? | Oct 31 | $1,510 | −$10 | -1% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | Oct 31 | $520 | −$520 | -100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? | Oct 31 | $495 | −$495 | -100% |
| Will Guinea vs. Botswana end in a draw? | Oct 15 | $140 | +$60 | +43% |
| Will Guinea win on 2025-10-14? | Oct 15 | $2,497 | −$1,325 | -53% |
| Will DR Congo win on 2025-10-14? | Oct 14 | $784 | −$784 | -100% |
| Will England win on 2025-10-14? | Oct 14 | $350 | −$350 | -100% |
| Will Algeria win on 2025-10-14? | Oct 14 | $1,420 | −$1,420 | -100% |
| Spread: Bills (-4.5) | Oct 14 | $1,650 | +$1,350 | +82% |
| Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Oct 09 | $1,050 | −$1,050 | -100% |
| Red Sox vs. Yankees | Oct 02 | $4,367 | +$2,550 | +58% |
| US government shutdown by October 1? | Oct 01 | $2,253 | +$268 | +12% |
| Reds vs. Dodgers | Oct 01 | $3,585 | +$1,931 | +54% |
| Tigers vs. Guardians | Oct 01 | $345 | +$150 | +44% |
| Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? | Oct 01 | $7,052 | −$6,690 | -95% |
| Red Sox vs. Yankees | Sep 30 | $3,360 | −$3,360 | -100% |
| Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? | Sep 18 | $3,087 | −$3,087 | -100% |