Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:11:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

49 0x49d6…ea7b other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$622 (+25%) realized +$495 · open +$127

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip

Net edge-64%after slip

Net WR21%break-even

Win rate21%3W / 11L

Drawdown83%max

Avg bet$136per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$747now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +21%

net ROI/market (all)-61.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-56.9%	-61.0%	21%	21%	+16.7%
≤30d	14	-56.9%	-61.0%	21%	21%	+16.7%
≤90d	14	-56.9%	-61.0%	21%	21%	+16.7%
all	14	-56.9%	-61.0%	21%	21%	+16.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-61.0%	21%	+16.7%
10%	-64.8%	21%	+5.6%
15%	-68.2%	21%	-4.6%
20%	-71.3%	21%	-14.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 91% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -57% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -100% → late -14% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$361 vs −$51 · ×7.05 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$747

Realized+$495

Unrealized+$127

Win rate (resolved)21%

Wins / losses3 / 11

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions4

Markets (closed)14 / 18

History coverage2d

Avg bet$136

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown83%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	71¢	100¢	$400	$562	+$162 (+41%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers	Chicago White Sox	28¢	46¢	$50	$83	+$33 (+65%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$70	$1	−$69 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$21	−$21	-100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs	Jun 19	$48	−$48	-100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics	Jun 19	$9	−$9	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$526	+$294	+56%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$53	−$53	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$634	+$695	+110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Jun 19	$106	−$106	-100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox	Jun 19	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$21	−$21	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Jun 19	$22	−$22	-100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 19	$64	−$64	-100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$191	−$191	-100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees	Jun 19	$69	+$94	+137%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers	BUY Chicago White Sox	28¢	$53	35m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	80¢	$262	1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	7¢	$53	2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	0¢	$3	3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	0¢	$1	3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	0¢	$1	3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	3¢	$43	3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$158	4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	1¢	$21	4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$526	12h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics	BUY Los Angeles Angels	3¢	$9	20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	5¢	$53	21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	36¢	$106	22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	46¢	$106	22h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees	BUY Chicago White Sox	34¢	$16	23h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees	BUY Chicago White Sox	42¢	$53	24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	0¢	$11	25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	0¢	$11	25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	0¢	$21	25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	0¢	$42	25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	7¢	$107	25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Up	77¢	$106	27h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox	BUY Boston Red Sox	13¢	$21	28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	12¢	$21	28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$22	28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$422	33h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	1¢	$53	44h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$5	44h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	2¢	$11	44h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $746.66 · official $746.66 (match) · 47 history records