Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x49d6…4cec
crypto · 1576 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$212 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$679 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30
Realized+$679
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses749 / 541
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1290 / 1576
History coverage37d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day62.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 1290 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days+$425
14 days+$816
30 days+$714
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 59¢ 100¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+69%)
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 59¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$3 (+69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 50¢ 60¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$677
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 487 +25.8% +13.8% 63% 63% +16.0%
≤30d 1262 +19.1% +7.8% 59% 59% +3.4%
≤90d 1290 +17.6% +6.4% 58% 58% +2.6%
all 1290 +17.6% +6.4% 58% 58% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover62.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.4% 58% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here -3.8% 58% -7.2%
15% -13.1% 58% -16.2%
20% -21.6% 58% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.13 · official $29.38 (match) · 3075 history records