Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
49 0x49d8…67f5 world 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$352 (-30%) realized −$352 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$236
politics 10% +$3
economics 10% −$118
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +61.3% +45.9% 100% 100% +45.9%
≤90d 3 +45.4% +31.5% 100% 100% +34.5%
all 12 -11.4% -19.9% 50% 42% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 42% -37.9%
10% -27.5% 42% -43.8%
15% -34.5% 33% -49.2%
20% -41.0% 17% -54.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$81 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$352
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage205d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 74¢ 74¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 09 $33 +$20 +61%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 27 $23 +$10 +45%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $18 +$5 +30%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 17 $12 +$5 +45%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $215 −$203 -94%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 14 $100 −$8 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15? Jan 14 $206 +$16 +8%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31? Jan 01 $128 +$79 +62%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%? Dec 19 $118 −$118 -100%
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19? Dec 19 $75 −$72 -96%
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025? Dec 10 $97 −$72 -75%
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? Dec 10 $99 −$14 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $53 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 62¢ $33 63d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 69¢ $23 82d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 77¢ $18 104d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 69¢ $12 118d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes $12 149d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $215 165d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 67¢ $92 165d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? BUY No 73¢ $100 166d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15? SELL No 99¢ $222 166d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15? BUY No 92¢ $206 177d
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%? BUY No 61¢ $21 192d
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19? SELL Yes $3 192d
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $75 192d
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%? BUY No 80¢ $98 199d
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31? BUY No 71¢ $25 200d
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 200d
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $103 200d
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $84 200d
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $99 201d
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025? BUY Yes 57¢ $97 204d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.40 · official $52.40 (match) · 26 history records