Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:49:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49d9…4540 crypto 152 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$69 (-1%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%99W / 74L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day94.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$128
14 days−$222
30 days−$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,031
other 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -33.4% -39.7% 44% 44% -16.5%
≤30d 116 -17.6% -25.5% 55% 55% -15.2%
≤90d 173 -8.2% -16.9% 57% 51% -2.7%
all 173 -8.2% -16.9% 57% 51% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 51% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 47% -12.0%
15% -32.1% 42% -20.5%
20% -38.8% 18% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
22.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$22 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses99 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 152
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$74
Trades / day94.4
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 173 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 17? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 19? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$14 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $58 +$23 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $32 +$18 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $56 +$27 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $56 +$31 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $55 +$26 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $58 −$57 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $55 +$40 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$41 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $32 +$18 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $32 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $32 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $58 +$37 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $74 +$46 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $33 +$16 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $32 +$18 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $35 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $52 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $42 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $61 −$61 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $33 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $56 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $56 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $56 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $55 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $58 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $55 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records