Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
49 0x49d9…d6c1 sports 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$95 (+10%) realized +$90 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day79.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$90
14 days+$90
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$114
other 9% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +12.5% +1.8% 47% 47% +4.3%
≤30d 36 +12.5% +1.8% 47% 47% +4.3%
≤90d 36 +12.5% +1.8% 47% 47% +4.3%
all 36 +12.5% +1.8% 47% 47% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.8% 47% +4.3%
10% ← realistic here -7.9% 47% -5.7%
15% -16.8% 44% -14.8%
20% -25.0% 33% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$90
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions15
Markets (closed)36 / 51
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day79.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-9%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 62¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-8%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Over 62¢ 60¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $22 $20 −$1 (-6%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 40¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Tunisia 76¢ 74¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 56¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Over 24¢ 22¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 100¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+257%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 31¢ 28¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Over 30¢ 25¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 55¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 25¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Over 61¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 21¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Under 72¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Curaçao 48¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $45 +$30 +66%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $21 +$17 +79%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $16 −$5 -32%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $16 −$2 -10%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$1 -16%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $54 −$26 -47%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $17 −$11 -66%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $38 −$19 -50%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $31 −$21 -66%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $42 +$18 +44%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $16 +$4 +29%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $16 +$10 +67%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $16 +$9 +52%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $25 +$15 +62%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $32 −$16 -51%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $32 +$13 +41%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 +$22 +73%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $16 −$15 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $35 +$18 +52%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 +$23 +148%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$22 +711%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 +$19 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $15 4m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 36m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 49m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $3 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $11 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $15 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $27 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 25¢ $5 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $21 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $29 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $10 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $5 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 SELL Over 43¢ $14 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $15 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands $4 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 23¢ $10 4h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $6 8h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $4 8h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $4 8h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $8 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $6 8h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $10 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 43¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.85 · official $202.86 (match) · 109 history records