Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:51:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49d9…7e2e politics 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$4,750 (+2%) realized +$4,748 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate24%42W / 133L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$1,469per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$29
14 days−$52
30 days−$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$147
other 31% +$158
sports 13% +$4,704
world 6% −$56
economics 2% −$6
culture 2% −$6
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 47 -1.8% -11.2% 6% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 103 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 5% -8.9%
all 175 +0.7% -8.9% 24% 10% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 10% -7.9%
10% -17.6% 10% -16.7%
15% -25.5% 9% -24.8%
20% -32.8% 9% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$2,133) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$8 · ×16.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.3 per $1 lost it wins $5.3
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$541
Realized+$4,748
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses42 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions3
Markets (closed)175 / 178
History coverage153d
Avg bet$1,469
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $243 $243 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $148 $149 +$2 (+1%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $149 $149 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $3,086 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $1,308 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $2,539 −$4 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $2,726 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3,072 −$4 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $6,364 −$8 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $1,388 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $2,073 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,844 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $344 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $2,172 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,801 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $3,471 −$4 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $6,990 −$7 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,906 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $5,875 −$7 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,858 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,995 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,464 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,089 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,711 −$5 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,988 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,007 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,865 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $78 −$78 -100%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $707 −$1 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 05 $86 +$47 +55%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,710 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,739 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,492 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,089 −$3 -0%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 02 $87 +$56 +65%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $3,461 −$5 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,403 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $444 +$1 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 31 $1,871 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $1,990 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $2,055 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,612 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $615 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $3,197 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $243 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $260 4h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $260 6h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $271 22h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $271 25h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $324 26h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $325 28h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $355 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $356 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $378 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $379 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $292 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $149 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $292 4d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $266 4d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $266 4d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $248 5d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $249 5d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $204 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $204 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $510 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $511 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $343 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $344 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $356 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $357 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $775 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $777 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $871 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $872 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $541.05 · official $541.05 (match) · 674 history records