Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49da…0430 crypto 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$43 (-5%) realized −$33 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$93
14 days+$93
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% −$64
politics 31% +$26
other 28% −$23
world 9% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +151.5% +127.6% 100% 100% +127.6%
≤30d 1 +151.5% +127.6% 100% 100% +127.6%
≤90d 25 -8.8% -17.5% 56% 36% -12.5%
all 25 -8.8% -17.5% 56% 36% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 36% -12.5%
10% -25.4% 24% -20.9%
15% -32.6% 16% -28.5%
20% -39.2% 12% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$19 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage70d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$93 +152%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 07 $31 +$10 +32%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during King Charles visit? May 07 $25 +$10 +38%
Will Trump say "N Word" in April? Apr 19 $61 $0 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 13 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $10 +$24 +243%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Kanye tweet again by April 30? Apr 12 $165 −$105 -63%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $121 +$20 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 12 $47 +$12 +26%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 11 $10 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 11 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 11 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 11 $46 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 11 $10 −$8 -76%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 11 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 11 $63 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 11 $63 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $61 2h
Will Trump say "N Word" in April? SELL No 96¢ $61 62d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY No 76¢ $31 68d
Will Trump say "Hottest" during King Charles visit? BUY No 72¢ $25 68d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 3¢ $5 68d
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 68d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 48¢ $34 68d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 7¢ $16 68d
Will Trump say "N Word" in April? BUY No 95¢ $61 69d
Will Kanye tweet again by April 30? SELL No 15¢ $61 69d
Will Kanye tweet again by April 30? BUY No 40¢ $165 69d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 69d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 69d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $10 69d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 69d
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 69d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 99¢ $141 69d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $60 69d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 69d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 69d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 85¢ $121 69d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $47 70d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $11 70d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 70d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $15 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $9 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $9 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 70d
Will White House post 100-119 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 56 history records