Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49da…0f6a crypto 430 markets active 1h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,171 (-6%) realized −$1,167 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%151W / 273L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$62
14 days−$652
30 days−$761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$2,258
world 26% +$968
other 22% +$426
crypto 17% −$285
politics 3% −$175
finance 1% +$50
weather 1% −$68
economics 0% −$4
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -21.0% -28.5% 33% 33% +0.7%
≤30d 23 -6.6% -15.5% 26% 26% -25.2%
≤90d 119 -8.6% -17.3% 36% 30% -16.2%
all 424 -15.0% -23.1% 36% 34% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 34% -15.6%
10% -30.5% 32% -23.7%
15% -37.2% 29% -31.1%
20% -43.3% 24% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$30 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized−$1,167
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses151 / 273
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions6
Markets (closed)424 / 430
History coverage214d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $65 $67 +$2 (+3%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $25 $8 −$17 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 227 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? Jun 25 $69 −$9 -14%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $100 −$4 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $283 +$117 +42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $33 +$17 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $152 −$149 -98%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $567 −$400 -70%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $165 +$431 +262%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,498 −$1,490 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $25 −$24 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$13 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $280 +$282 +101%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $643 −$634 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $196 +$1,521 +776%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $68 −$67 -99%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 13 $163 −$47 -28%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $31 −$29 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $80 −$80 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $642 −$543 -85%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $52 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $206 −$164 -80%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $89 −$39 -43%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $367 +$24 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 24 $132 −$33 -25%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect May 24 $105 +$5 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 24 $189 +$29 +15%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $33 −$32 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $16 −$1 -6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 18 $304 +$20 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $134 −$13 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 May 11 $100 −$13 -12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 11 $20 +$5 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $71 −$62 -87%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $8 +$1 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $20 −$14 -69%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $19 +$81 +414%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $25 +$37 +146%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $75 +$41 +55%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 09 $29 −$29 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $220 +$60 +27%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $10 −$2 -16%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 07 $200 +$14 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $60 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 18h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $60 18h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $96 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $25 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 18h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $100 18h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $69 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 41¢ $50 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $50 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $33 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $283 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 3¢ $4 7d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 18¢ $12 7d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 28¢ $136 9d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $136 9d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 10d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $567 10d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 10d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $596 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1,498 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $25 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.00 · official $283.21 (match) · 902 history records