Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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49 0x49dc…ea96 crypto 2044 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,610 (-41%) realized −$3,548 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%1036W / 990L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day43.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,908
7 days−$1,974
14 days−$1,918
30 days−$2,041
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$219
weather 6% +$90
sports 6% +$44
other 3% +$8
world 3% −$44
politics 0% −$15
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 493 -34.2% -40.5% 50% 42% -62.2%
≤30d 1957 -6.9% -15.7% 51% 48% -30.4%
≤90d 2026 -6.6% -15.5% 51% 49% -26.2%
all 2026 -6.6% -15.5% 51% 49% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 49% -26.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 42% -33.3%
15% -31.0% 35% -39.7%
20% -37.7% 32% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$3,548
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses1036 / 990
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions16
Markets (closed)2026 / 2044
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day43.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 2026 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 28¢ 81¢ $17 $49 +$32 (+191%)
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 48¢ 65¢ $24 $32 +$8 (+35%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 77¢ 88¢ $15 $18 +$2 (+14%)
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Yes 51¢ 35¢ $26 $18 −$8 (-31%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Yes 57¢ 43¢ $21 $16 −$5 (-25%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 77¢ 72¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 70¢ 18¢ $42 $11 −$31 (-74%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? No 40¢ 57¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+43%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 76¢ 83¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? No 74¢ 80¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 23¢ 68¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+198%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 20¢ 28¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+38%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 70¢ 70¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Yes 54¢ 34¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 22¢ 17¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 76¢ 32¢ $8 $3 −$4 (-59%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $6 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 23¢ 15¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in June? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 21¢ 81¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+297%)
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? No 49¢ 2¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-96%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 38¢ 72¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+91%)
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? No 40¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 475 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$6 -113%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1059%
Solana Up or Down - February 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -476%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 2AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -11385%
Counter-Strike: Washington vs CSDIILIT (BO3) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12PM ET Jun 17 $143 −$143 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bucknell Bison vs. Navy Midshipmen Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$11 -110%
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 2PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 8AM ET Jun 17 $131 −$131 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 1AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -76%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -553%
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$7 -85%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -145%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +603%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 76¢ $8 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 77¢ $8 3h
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? SELL No 49¢ $5 3h
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? BUY No 69¢ $7 3h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $8 3h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 3h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $7 4h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 4h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $7 4h
Will two people dissent the July Fed decision? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will two people dissent the July Fed decision? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $4 5h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $4 5h
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in June 2026 be between 1.8% and 2. SELL Yes 36¢ $3 5h
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in June 2026 be between 1.8% and 2. BUY Yes 43¢ $2 6h
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in June 2026 be between 1.8% and 2. BUY Yes 43¢ $3 6h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 6h
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 6h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 70¢ $4 6h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $4 6h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 6h
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6h
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 6h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $4 6h
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY No 74¢ $7 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.20 · official $217.96 (match) · 3500 history records