Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
49 0x49e1…a8bd other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$153 (+8%) realized +$207 · open −$54
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$19
finance 30% −$18
sports 23% +$237
politics 2% −$19
crypto 1% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +48.1% +34.0% 45% 45% +15.0%
≤30d 31 +48.1% +34.0% 45% 45% +15.0%
≤90d 31 +48.1% +34.0% 45% 45% +15.0%
all 31 +48.1% +34.0% 45% 45% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.0% 45% +15.0%
10% +21.2% 45% +4.0%
15% +9.5% 45% -6.0%
20% -1.3% 39% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +82% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$25 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$618
Realized+$207
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions7
Markets (closed)31 / 40
History coverage6d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $322 $291 −$31 (-10%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $200 $213 +$13 (+7%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 27¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $30 $11 −$19 (-65%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$60 +291%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$73 +144%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $31 +$41 +134%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 +$46 +444%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$35 +170%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 −$4 -20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$16 -78%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$66 +642%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$88 +287%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$23 +222%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$44 +88%
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 −$8 -37%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$105 +103%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +39%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $75 +$20 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$22 +84%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$40 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$50 -94%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $21 +$50 +233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden $21 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 16¢ $21 13h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 13h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 21¢ $20 13h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 84¢ $72 15h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY 12¢ $51 25h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $31 25h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $31 25h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 95¢ $56 39h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 99¢ $55 39h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $15 43h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $10 44h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 45h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $20 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 17¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $76 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $119 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $10 2d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY Yes $52 2d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 15¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $31 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2d
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $617.58 · official $717.58 · 75 history records