Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:28:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x49e1…7bf6
sports · 644 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$11,406 +59%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,452 · open −$39
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$562
Realized−$6,452
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses252 / 546
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions88
Markets (closed)798 / 644
History coverage11d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day281.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 88 History 798 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,122
7 days−$6,324
14 days−$6,452
30 days−$6,452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 74¢ 74¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 52¢ 92¢ $21 $37 +$16 (+75%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 49¢ 54¢ $20 $21 +$2 (+8%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 63¢ 62¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 81¢ 90¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+11%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 58¢ 56¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 78¢ 78¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+45%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? No 82¢ 94¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 54¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 53¢ 52¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? No 85¢ 86¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 61¢ 62¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 51¢ 100¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+94%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 58¢ 56¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-14%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? No 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-13%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 76% −$119
sports 20% +$105
other 4% −$66
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 19¢ $1 38m
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 20¢ $1 39m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $2 40m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $4 42m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 45¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 55¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 55¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $3 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 47¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 47¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 81¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 81¢ $4 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 88¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 81¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $3 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 546 -49.5% -54.3% 23% 21% -65.4%
≤30d 798 -33.0% -39.4% 32% 29% -33.4%
≤90d 798 -33.0% -39.4% 32% 29% -33.4%
all 798 -33.0% -39.4% 32% 29% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover281.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.4% 29% -33.4%
10% ← realistic here -45.2% 25% -39.8%
15% -50.5% 20% -45.6%
20% -55.3% 14% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $562.10 · official $558.61 (match) · 3500 history records