Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:35:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49e5…2ed7 crypto 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate90%28W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 98% −$5
crypto 2% +$4
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 31 +2.5% -7.3% 90% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 6% -9.5%
10% -16.1% 6% -18.2%
15% -24.2% 3% -26.1%
20% -31.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 92% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses28 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage234d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 17? No 99¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 89¢ 84¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 21? May 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on February 24? Mar 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $4,994 −$5 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 01 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Jan 01 $3 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 27? Dec 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on December 27 Dec 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on December 27 Dec 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 2 Dec 27 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 23? Dec 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on December 23? Dec 24 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 23? Dec 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 10? Dec 11 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on December 10? Dec 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on December 4? Dec 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on December 4? Dec 06 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 4? Dec 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on December 4 Dec 06 $7 +$2 +26%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in November? Dec 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Airbnb (ABNB) close above $140 end of November? Dec 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $490 end of November? Dec 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on November 14? Nov 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on November 14? Nov 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on November 14? Nov 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Petr Fiala be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after Nov 12 $4 $0 -0%
Will Vít Rakušan be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic afte Nov 12 $4 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? Nov 05 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $3 8h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $4 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 27d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on February 24? BUY No 100¢ $4 114d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $4,989 156d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $4,994 156d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 167d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 167d
Ethereum all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 168d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $3 169d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 2 BUY No 99¢ $4 171d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on December 27 BUY No 100¢ $3 171d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 172d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on December 27 BUY No 100¢ $3 172d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 23? BUY No 100¢ $4 176d
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on December 23? BUY No 99¢ $3 176d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 177d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on December 10? BUY No 100¢ $2 189d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 10? BUY No 98¢ $3 189d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on December 4 BUY No 81¢ $4 194d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 194d
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on December 4? BUY No 100¢ $2 194d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on December 4 BUY No 78¢ $3 194d
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on December 4? BUY No 99¢ $3 194d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 199d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $490 end of November? BUY No 100¢ $3 200d
Will Airbnb (ABNB) close above $140 end of November? BUY No 100¢ $3 200d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $2 201d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $490 end of November? BUY No 99¢ $4 201d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.64 · official $10.64 (match) · 68 history records