Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:27:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x49e7…d352
other · 35 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$119 -47%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$119 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses5 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage23d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 0 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$6
14 days−$24
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Paraguay vs. Nicaragua end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Exact Score: Singapore 2 - 0 China PR? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Exact Score: China PR 1 - 2 Thailand? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Maja Chwalinska 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-23? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Germany? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 22? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 Nigeria? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Nigeria? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +42%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 Nigeria? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: China PR 1 - 2 Thailand? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $10 +$2 +21%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 $0 -33%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Northern Ireland? Jun 09 $2 +$23 +1116%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Germany? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Paraguay vs. Nicaragua end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Singapore 2 - 0 China PR? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3 −$2 -97%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? May 23 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 22? May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 22? May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 22? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or below on May 22? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? May 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% +$5
sports 22% −$38
world 15% −$36
weather 12% −$29
politics 6% −$15
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 12h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 26h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 38h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Nigeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 Nigeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: China PR 1 - 2 Thailand? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: China PR 1 - 2 Thailand? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 4d
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $10 4d
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Northern Ireland? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 0¢ $1 6d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 1¢ $1 6d
Will Paraguay vs. Nicaragua end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7d
Exact Score: Singapore 2 - 0 China PR? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7d
Exact Score: Singapore 2 - 0 China PR? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 7d
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 7d
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-47.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +5.6% -4.4% 25% 25% -4.8%
≤30d 35 -41.7% -47.3% 14% 14% -52.7%
≤90d 35 -41.7% -47.3% 14% 14% -52.7%
all 35 -41.7% -47.3% 14% 14% -52.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.3% 14% -52.7%
10% -52.3% 11% -57.3%
15% -56.9% 11% -61.4%
20% -61.1% 9% -65.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records