Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
49 0x49eb…cf37 world 22 markets active 3h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$28,223 (+14%) realized +$41,071 · open −$12,848
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$9,086per market
Trades / day43.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$31,945now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,140
7 days−$3,140
14 days+$32,012
30 days+$32,700
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% +$30,129
other 6% −$4,344
sports 0% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -46.6% -51.7% 0% 0% -51.7%
≤30d 6 -12.5% -20.8% 50% 50% +40.8%
≤90d 19 +11.7% +1.1% 58% 37% +13.0%
all 19 +11.7% +1.1% 58% 37% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.1% 37% +13.0%
10% -8.6% 21% +2.2%
15% ← realistic here -17.4% 21% -7.7%
20% -25.5% 21% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$14,231) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
19.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,213 vs −$972 · ×4.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.96 per $1 lost it wins $5.96
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$31,945
Realized+$41,071
Unrealized−$12,848
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage74d
Avg bet$9,086
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 65¢ 48¢ $34,273 $25,485 −$8,788 (-26%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $8,769 $3,995 −$4,775 (-54%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 99¢ $1,750 $2,465 +$715 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 26 $6,742 −$3,140 -47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $305 −$305 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $2,406 +$1,945 +81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $45,268 +$33,545 +74%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $4,073 +$688 +17%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $4,994 −$3,643 -73%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 21 $14,231 +$485 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 18 $25,534 +$1,132 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $4,030 +$3,839 +95%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? May 11 $285 −$285 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 11 $118 −$118 -100%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? May 10 $11 +$51 +442%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 05 $17,144 +$1,681 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 17 $15,097 +$2,047 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 16 $3,000 −$111 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 16 $6,000 +$260 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $1,000 −$139 -14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 15 $4,421 +$667 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,766 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1,765 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $309 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $685 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $771 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1,838 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $12 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $0 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $20 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $66 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $195 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $31 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $12 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $897 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $23 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $3,100 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $14 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $46 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,793 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $297 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $109 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $109 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $322 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,945.15 · official $31,943.90 (match) · 3248 history records