Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49ed…0669 sports 135 markets active 2d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (641 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$236 (-7%) realized −$236 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate62%83W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day640.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$27
other 28% −$298
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (641 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -1.0% -10.4% 62% 39% -16.7%
≤30d 134 -1.0% -10.4% 62% 39% -16.7%
≤90d 134 -1.0% -10.4% 62% 39% -16.7%
all 134 -1.0% -10.4% 62% 39% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover640.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 39% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 13% -24.7%
15% -26.8% 7% -32.0%
20% -34.0% 6% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$236
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses83 / 51
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage2d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day640.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $3 $0 +13%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $9 +$3 +31%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $6 +$3 +53%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 +18%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 $0 +8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $39 −$6 -15%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 −$2 -12%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $7 −$4 -58%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 18 $2 +$1 +57%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $14 +$3 +21%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $15 −$4 -24%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $26 −$10 -39%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $69 −$2 -3%
ITF Blois: Lucie Nguyen Tan vs Despina Papamichail Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $23 −$21 -92%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche Jun 18 $4 $0 -12%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +16%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $39 −$1 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $87 −$4 -5%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $19 −$3 -16%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $21 −$1 -6%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Cash/Glasspool Jun 18 $1 $0 +17%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 18 $3 $0 +6%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $11 +$6 +53%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $28 $0 +2%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $9 +$1 +12%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $14 +$8 +54%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 18 $4 +$1 +28%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Jun 18 $6 +$1 +10%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $16 +$2 +10%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Yi Zhou Jun 18 $2 $0 +11%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $15 +$3 +21%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $23 +$1 +5%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti Jun 18 $6 +$1 +15%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Ipek Oz Jun 18 $3 −$1 -38%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 18 $3 $0 +17%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $45 −$5 -10%
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog Jun 18 $2 −$1 -44%
ITF Mohammedia: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Elina Nepliy Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $8 +$1 +16%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $55 −$1 -2%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $19 +$2 +9%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $17 −$1 -6%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Bhambri/Venus vs Arevalo/Pavic Jun 18 $1 $0 +17%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $19 −$3 -15%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $30 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 76¢ $2 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 34¢ $1 39h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Guido Justo 63¢ $2 39h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 88¢ $2 40h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $2 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 36¢ $2 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $1 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $2 40h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $2 40h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $1 40h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 62¢ $1 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 40h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 47¢ $1 40h
ITF Blois: Lucie Nguyen Tan vs Despina Papamichail BUY Despina Papamichail 50¢ $1 40h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 54¢ $2 40h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 88¢ $1 40h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Daniel Rincon 57¢ $2 40h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 85¢ $1 40h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 84¢ $2 40h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 55¢ $2 40h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 61¢ $2 40h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto BUY Nick Hardt 99¢ $2 40h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 61¢ $3 40h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Zhizhen Zhang 97¢ $2 40h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 61¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.14 · official $3.14 (match) · 1435 history records