Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x49f0…b403 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate93%25W / 2L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$2
finance 25% $0
crypto 21% $0
world 2% +$1
sports 2% $0
politics 1% +$1
weather 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 25% -9.6%
≤30d 19 +1.9% -7.8% 89% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 27 +1.8% -7.9% 93% 4% -9.3%
all 27 +1.8% -7.9% 93% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 4% -9.3%
10% -16.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -24.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.69 per $1 lost it wins $7.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$416
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses25 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)27 / 36
History coverage44d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $379 $379 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+23%)
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 98¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Guillotine" during UFC 250? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 81¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 22? No 98¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 21 $332 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 15 $326 $0 -0%
Will Bilibili Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Trump say "Trump Accord" or "Trump Peace" in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $267 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Team Liquid win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 29? May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Black Belt (BO3) - Circuit X May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will Benoît Saint Denis fight Paddy Pimblett next? May 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $17 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $328 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the announcers say "Guillotine" during UFC 250? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $332 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $51 13h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 87¢ $1 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $332 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $326 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $326 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $2 15d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $3 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $17 15d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $127 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 23d
Will Trump say "Trump Accord" or "Trump Peace" in May? BUY No 96¢ $1 23d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $3 23d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 23d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $3 23d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 23d
Will Team Liquid win BLAST Slam VII? BUY No 98¢ $1 23d
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Black Belt (BO3) - Circuit X BUY Bounty Hunters Esports 100¢ $2 23d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 23d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $135 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 32d
Will Benoît Saint Denis fight Paddy Pimblett next? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 36d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.18 · official $416.20 (match) · 81 history records