Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49f0…f942 sports 88 markets active 23h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized +$5 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%38W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days+$17
14 days+$11
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$147
other 17% −$103
weather 3% −$30
world 2% −$11
crypto 2% −$25
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -4.6% -13.7% 40% 40% -4.3%
≤30d 59 +8.1% -2.2% 46% 46% -8.3%
≤90d 85 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 45% -10.7%
all 85 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 45% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 45% -10.7%
10% -17.5% 45% -19.2%
15% -25.5% 42% -27.0%
20% -32.8% 42% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses38 / 47
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)85 / 88
History coverage32d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 20¢ 19¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 35¢ 30¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 15¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$21 +101%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 +$26 +172%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$17 +69%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $15 +$26 +172%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $10 +$12 +119%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $10 +$12 +114%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $30 +$26 +86%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5) Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $20 +$17 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $10 +$9 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $20 +$22 +109%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $15 +$24 +158%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 04 $10 +$5 +52%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $10 +$7 +73%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 02 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$17 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or below on May 26? May 24 $31 −$30 -96%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 May 24 $10 +$9 +90%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $20 +$11 +52%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 May 23 $20 +$17 +86%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $20 +$20 +97%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 21 $10 +$12 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $15 22h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 46¢ $15 22h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $15 31h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 15¢ $15 34h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 20¢ $15 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 39h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 35¢ $15 40h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $15 47h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $10 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 53¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No $5 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 18¢ $6 5d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $10 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $10 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 45¢ $10 6d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 36¢ $15 6d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Mattia Bellucci 46¢ $10 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 53¢ $10 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 53¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.11 · official $32.68 (match) · 152 history records