Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49f0…1759 other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$67 (-17%) realized −$66 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +58% what you keep after slip
Net edge+58%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$60
crypto 5% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+64.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +82.1% +64.8% 38% 31% -28.4%
≤30d 16 +82.1% +64.8% 38% 31% -28.4%
≤90d 16 +82.1% +64.8% 38% 31% -28.4%
all 16 +82.1% +64.8% 38% 31% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +64.8% 31% -28.4%
10% +49.0% 31% -35.3%
15% +34.6% 19% -41.5%
20% +21.4% 19% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +82% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +204% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$21 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$6 -29%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $31 +$8 +25%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 +$58 +1882%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $31 +$9 +29%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 1m
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 10m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 22h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 5¢ $39 23h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $72 23h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 26h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 26h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 26h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 43h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 43h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 20¢ $33 43h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 44h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 44h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? SELL Yes 19¢ $40 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 47h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.89 · official $8.89 (match) · 25 history records